Abstract Detail

Modeling the processes that mediate speciation and extinction rates across plants

Warnock, Rachel [1], Barido-Sottani, Joëlle [2], Darroch, Simon [3], Saupe, Erin [4].

Testing phylodynamic inference of diversification trends using species distribution models.

It is extremely difficult to identify the drivers of speciation and extinction in deep time, in part, because diversity and fossil sampling are often strongly correlated. Advances in phylodynamics have great potential to overcome this challenge, by allowing us to combine phylogenetic and fossil occurrence data in a statistically coherent framework that accounts for incomplete sampling. It remains unknown, however, whether any methodology has the ability to disentangle the role of different processes in explaining diversity patterns in the fossil record, since many methods have not been convincingly tested. Our solution is to utilize parallel developments in species distribution models (SDMs), which are typically used to explore the impact of alternative climate scenarios on the spatial-temporal distribution of biodiversity. These models differ fundamentally in their underlying assumptions from phylogenetic inference tools used in macroevolution. In this study, we couple SDMs used to generate climate-driven  latitudinal diversity gradients with  models of environment-dependent fossil recovery and character evolution. We use the resulting simulated data sets to test the performance of the multi-type fossilized birth-death process, which allows diversification and sampling rates to vary across lineages. While the core parameters of our simulation framework are niche breadth, dispersal and climate variables, the parameters of our inference framework are the speciation, extinction, migration and sampling rates. We focus on evaluating our ability to recover species divergence times, as well as trends in diversification. In particular, we examine the prospects for testing hypotheses about the role of the environment in driving speciation and extinction based on fossil occurrence data.

1 - FAU, Palaeontology, Loewenichstr. 28, Erlangen, 91054, Germany
2 - Iowa State University
3 - Vanderbilt University
4 - Boise State University, Snake River Plains Herbaria, , Boise, Idaho, 83725, USA

Keywords:
macroevolution
phylodynamics
birth-death processes
fossil sampling
species distribution models.

Presentation Type: Colloquium Presentations
Session: C01, Modeling the processes that mediate speciation and extinction rates across plants
Location: /
Date: Monday, July 19th, 2021
Time: 10:15 AM(EDT)
Number: C01001
Abstract ID:543
Candidate for Awards:None