Abstract Detail

Modeling the processes that mediate speciation and extinction rates across plants

May, Michael R [1], Rothfels, Carl [2].

The consequences of mistreating diversification models as "priors" in Bayesian model comparison.

Time-calibrated phylogenetic trees are fundamental to a wide range of evolutionary studies. When these trees are inferred in a Bayesian framework,  the phylogeny itself is treated as a parameter with a prior distribution (a "tree prior").  This prior distribution is often a variant of the stochastic birth-death process, which  models speciation events, extinction events, and sampling events (of extinct and/or  extant lineages). However, the samples themselves are observations, so their probability should be viewed as a likelihood rather than a prior probability. We explore the consequences of this problem using extinct and extant marattialean ferns as a case study, and  show that  it can result in model-comparison approaches  disfavoring the best model within a set of candidate models.  We outline potential remedies, and provide guidance for researchers interested in comparing the fit of competing tree models.

1 - University of California, Berkeley, 3040 Valley Life Sciences Building, #3140, Berkeley, California, 94720, United States
2 - University Of California Berkeley, Berkeley, 94720.0, United States

Keywords:
Lineage diversification
Bayesian inference
Model comparison
macroevolution.

Presentation Type: Colloquium Presentations
Session: C01, Modeling the processes that mediate speciation and extinction rates across plants
Location: /
Date: Monday, July 19th, 2021
Time: 1:30 PM(EDT)
Number: C01012
Abstract ID:420
Candidate for Awards:None