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Abstract Detail


Lucas, James [1].

Does ecological niche modeling look good on paper? Applying methods in global change biology to an ethnobotanical system.

Human activity is a major driver of global environmental change, both directly (e.g., land-use change) and indirectly (e.g., climate change). These effects have far-reaching ecological consequences, including (but not limited to) species range shifts, phenological mismatch, and rapid biodiversity loss. While routine field surveys, coupled with predictive modeling, can help to track human, plant, and animal responses to anthropogenic environmental change, few case studies examine global change in integrative, interdisciplinary contexts. With climate change disrupting many human-plant relationships around the globe, more applications of global change biology methods and modeling to ethnobotanical systems are needed for informed and actionable botanical and cultural conservation. This need extends beyond just plants used for medicine, but also those used for construction, food, shelter, clothing, clean air and water, and other products and ecosystem services. Even history itself depends on plants, for they enable human knowledge to transcend both time and place as one ubiquitous yet underappreciated plant product: paper. Although most papers today are machine-made from commercially-grown softwoods, some kinds (like Nepalese lokta paper) are still made by hand following centuries-old artisanal harvesting and processing traditions. Using Nepal as a case study, I will 1) use species distribution modeling and climatic projections computed via maximum entropy algorithms to evaluate the impact of global change on both hand papermaking traditions and the fiber plants they depend on; and 2) use the results from these models to recommend biocultural conservation initiatives for the preservation and maintenance of papermaking and other ethnobotanical traditions.

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James Lucas - Does ecological niche modeling look good on paper?

1 - Missouri Botanical Garden, 4344 Shaw Blvd, St. Louis, MO, 63110, United States

maximum entropy
climate change
species distribution models
ecological niche  

Presentation Type: Poster
Session: P2, Ethnobotany Posters
Location: Virtual/Virtual
Date: Tuesday, July 20th, 2021
Time: 5:00 PM(EDT)
Number: P2ET007
Abstract ID:1095
Candidate for Awards:None

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